EthanCainePoker.com

Simple Formula For Putting People On Hands

Putting people on hands is a very useful skill that I really need too sharpen.  If you look at previous posts going all the way back to last year when I first started learning poker I would have saved myself ALOT of money.

In fact when I really think about it I haven’t really had that many bad beats where the other person totally sucked out.  All of the money I lost has been on bad calls.

I have this formula posted on my desktop in full view so I am always thinking about it.

1.  Analyze each street of opponents play and think about what kind of cards would make YOU play the same way they are.

2.  Watch his betting pattern and try and put it together.

3.  Make your prediction using this formula and any additional reads you have gotten off this player in the past.

4.  Assign a percentage probability to the players possible hands.

Lets run through an example:

Your playing a person that you have labeled a TAG player and you have been dealt AA.

PreFlop:
Player calls your standard PF raise AA.  This shows that he probably doesn’t have big paint high cards or big over pair as he would have bet PreFlop.

Flop:
Flop comes 3KK (rainbow)
Opponent checks and you lead out for a moderate continuation bet since its unlikely player has a K.  Again if he had big paint he would have raised PF and not limped.  Logically he probably has suited connectors, or low pocket pair.

Player calls your bet.

Turn: 7h
There are no real draws player could be chasing and its doubtful that turn card helped the player.
You throw out a larger CBET to try and get player off but player just calls again.

River:  2d
Player now leads out for a large raise.  At this point you should be thinking:
Player must have something big to bet on the river like that.  Probably flopped a full house on the FLOP or TURN not that it would make a difference since it amounts to the same thing.

With all this information assign a probability percentage to the hands the player may have:

70% Full House
20% Having a K
10% Bulffing

The obvious solution would be to fold your AA as all you have is a top pair.

Putting people on hands is an extremely important skill to learn and if you keep this simple formula in mind your Poker will improve by leaps and bounds very quickly.

-Ethan Caine
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Poker Progress Update

I recently decided to start studying and playing poker seriously again. I have been playing off and on since june 2009 and in the last year and a half have learned much and come a long way. However its no secret that i’m not a winning player by any means.

I have decided to make a go at being a profitable player. Switching exclusively to No Limit Full Ring Cash games because i really need to work on patience and tightness.

I purchased Poker Copilot for Mac OS X to track my results. This tool has already paid for itself by showing my a number of leaks in my game.

I will do a whole series on Poker Copilot and how im using it soon.

I also switched to Ultimate Bet from Full Tilt because Full Tilt decided to stop paying me rakeback?!

I will switch back one day but honestly UB is pretty cool.

I will post updates to how im doing regularly as i am playing about 3 hours a day.

I am playing NL25 because i am comfortable with these stakes for now.

Playing a little bit below my bankroll but i will just put more money in if necassary. I am getting decent money from my job this year so i have a good cushion just in case.

Strategy is simple but requires discipline to not play weak hands. Basically playing tight, blind stealing, and waiting for monsters.

Also by playing one table i can take notes on my opponents and that is really helping me make quality descions.

I’m not bleeding chips anywhere close to what i was before either.

All in All things are going very well and will keep you updated.

Ethan Caine

He Bet It Like He Had AA…and He Did

Playing RUSH poker tonight and I learned the lesson that I need to listen to my intuition and not my greed side AGAIN.

I raise PF and the AA guy re-raises me.  Flop comes RAG unless he has a FLUSH and I go ALL IN push.

I had a feeling he had the AA before I hit the button yet I still pushed ALL IN.  I’m blaming greed on that point but still, I need to learn to LET HANDS go because this mistake cost me my ENTIRE stack.

Ask long as one keeps his head all will be well.

-Ethan
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Back Playing RUSH Poker with a PLAN

Today I started to play Rush poker Full Ring 2cent/5cent again.  I buy in for the MAX $5 and play for ONLY 15 mins.

During those 15 mins I focus on being in the ideal mental state so that I make the best decisions possible.  As a result my bank roll is increasing because I’m not really making really stupid calls anymore.

I find the 15 min time frame allows me to focus on playing correctly in an optimal manner.

Also because its Rush I can leave and join and all my user data for the people I played are still completely relevant.

I will keep you updated on my progress.

-Ethan Caine
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Only Enter into Confrontaions You Can Win

There is an old Zen quote that says,
“When two tigers fight, one will be killed and the other will be seriously wounded.”

This quote pretty much sums up why I lose buyin’s on a regular basis.  I push and push with great hands in situations where others have great hands and one of us gets taken out or seriously injured.  One of the secrets to being a top poker player is FOLDING great hands.

Only seriously enter into confrontations where YOU have the strength and your opponent is weaker.

“Winning is not the basic goal behind martial arts training.  The truth-although many people seem to forget it-is that most of the arts are designed to skillfully avoid win-lose-situations, to avoid conflict altogether.”
-Chuck Norris, The Secret Power Within

This of course, is easier said than done because one needs to develop a feel for the game that only comes with experience.  I’m getting there and will be focusing alot more on reading the strength of my opponents and taking every opportunity to fold good hands that could get me into trouble.

-Ethan Caine
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine

QQ vs AA – Should Have Known

I was playing a cash game today and got dealt QQ. I raised PF to drive calling stations out and I get a couple callers. The flop is rag and one of the guys raises a good 3x the pot. Of course me being a good poker player I have a bunch of notes on this guy I have been gathering for the last hour.

The other guy who called folds and its just me and Mr. Raiser. Now Mr. Raiser is a very tight player who doesn’t protect his blinds and folds to CBETs constantly. I re-raises his bet and he pushes all in.

Of course the guy has AA but like a retard I push all in with my QQ. This experience wasn’t a total waste as I know I’m getting better at reading people but of course doing the right thing with that knowledge is something else.

I’m reminded of something I read in Zen and the Art of Poker:
“Only by avoiding the beginning of things can we escape their ending”

Need to work on that.

-Ethan Caine
Follow me on Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Why Can’t I Let Go Of Hands???

For the last couple weeks I have been losing a lot of buy ins on marginal hands I just can’t seem to let go. I KNOW I should let them go but I just don’t. I will have QQ and the flop has an Ace and I KNOW the guy has ace yet I throw all my chips in the middle like a retard.

I sat down and tried to figure out why I do what I do in these situations.

First I identified whats going on just before i make the call.
-got that mild kind of scared feeling in my chest
-my amigduala or the lizard part of my brain goes into a mild flight or fight mode
Then BAM all my chips are in the middle

I’ve been reading a lot about ego in poker and how there is no place for it. I’m positive its not my ego as I have never had a problem taking the humble path when it came to arguments and the like.

I’m pretty sure this behavior is caused by the more basic instinct part of our brain. This is the mechanism that kept us alive thousands of years ago when a dangerous animal was near by hunting. Our brain senses the danger and puts us on alert to either run or fight.

Of course in todays day and age this mechanism is more annoying than useful but like it or not its part of who we are.

Zen and the Art of Poker suggests that you perceive the game as if you were simply a spectator. Essentially they are talking about emotional detachment.

To achieve this Zen state in Poker or anything for that matter you must practice practice practice knowing the game inside and out. Once you have achieved this your many hours of skillful play will put you in a state where you simply act automatically.

I feel I am closer than ever to this state but still have a ways to go. Will keep studying and practicing and see where it takes me.

-Ethan Caine
Follow me on Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Poker As A Long Game

Zen and the Art of Poker talks about making peace with breaking even. It discusses that you should have a neutral expectation when you sit down. If you keep getting rag hands you keep folding, simple as that. If you think just because you have been getting rag hands for 2 hours and you have paid your dues to the folding gods or something think again. Thats not a good enough reason to start playing marginal hands, keep folding.

You need to look at the game of poker as one long statistical run that never ends. Correct mathematical play will win out in the long run.

I of course need to practice what I preach. I’ve been thinking session by session and playing marginal hands lately. Going to tighten up and master TAG play before I even think about doing small ball.

Mental Fatigue

I was playing a cash game online for a couple hours tonight. I was playing very well for the first hour. Waiting patiently for a good hand, stealing when The opportunity presented itself. However on hour two I was starting to get tired and of course I went all in on a mid pair and got raped by his 2 pair.

Tonight was a good reminder that mental fatigue creeps up on you and you don’t really notice it until its to late.

Still, I’m glad I was able to play exceptionally well for that first hour and know when to quit and when to continue. This is probably one of the main things I will be working on in the near future to improve my game.

-Ethan Caine
Follow me on Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Don’t Wait For The Miracle Card

I was playing tired tonight and as a result I slipped up a number of times.  Did this a couple times and it cost me 2/3′s of my buy in.  Was VERY VERY close to a strait and didn’t want to let go so I kept calling the guys bets.

Don't Wait For Miracle Cards

Long story short I gave up before the river because it just wasn’t worth the risk.  At least I stopped from losing my ENTIRE buyin tonight.

-Ethan Caine