EthanCainePoker.com

With the annoyance of Full Tilt Poker getting shut down many people are getting away from online poker.   Full TIlt was my favorite online poker site for many reasons but now I must play elsewhere.

The big issue I guess is money and how safe is it in online poker sites.  Even before all this Apr 15th nonsense happened I have never trusted any online poker site with a large sum of money.

Why?  Think about it, they are all hosted and run offshore in tax havens.  Full Tilt says they are going to pay back all of their customers but there is really nothing that can make them.   We have to trust their word.

I am going to still play online poker but I am only going to leave small amounts of money in my account.  Everything else gets taken out and put into a proper bank that I can trust.

-Ethan

Putting people on hands is a very useful skill that I really need too sharpen.  If you look at previous posts going all the way back to last year when I first started learning poker I would have saved myself ALOT of money.

In fact when I really think about it I haven’t really had that many bad beats where the other person totally sucked out.  All of the money I lost has been on bad calls.

I have this formula posted on my desktop in full view so I am always thinking about it.

1.  Analyze each street of opponents play and think about what kind of cards would make YOU play the same way they are.

2.  Watch his betting pattern and try and put it together.

3.  Make your prediction using this formula and any additional reads you have gotten off this player in the past.

4.  Assign a percentage probability to the players possible hands.

Lets run through an example:

Your playing a person that you have labeled a TAG player and you have been dealt AA.

PreFlop:
Player calls your standard PF raise AA.  This shows that he probably doesn’t have big paint high cards or big over pair as he would have bet PreFlop.

Flop:
Flop comes 3KK (rainbow)
Opponent checks and you lead out for a moderate continuation bet since its unlikely player has a K.  Again if he had big paint he would have raised PF and not limped.  Logically he probably has suited connectors, or low pocket pair.

Player calls your bet.

Turn: 7h
There are no real draws player could be chasing and its doubtful that turn card helped the player.
You throw out a larger CBET to try and get player off but player just calls again.

River:  2d
Player now leads out for a large raise.  At this point you should be thinking:
Player must have something big to bet on the river like that.  Probably flopped a full house on the FLOP or TURN not that it would make a difference since it amounts to the same thing.

With all this information assign a probability percentage to the hands the player may have:

70% Full House
20% Having a K
10% Bulffing

The obvious solution would be to fold your AA as all you have is a top pair.

Putting people on hands is an extremely important skill to learn and if you keep this simple formula in mind your Poker will improve by leaps and bounds very quickly.

-Ethan Caine
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine

I recently decided to start studying and playing poker seriously again. I have been playing off and on since june 2009 and in the last year and a half have learned much and come a long way. However its no secret that i’m not a winning player by any means.

I have decided to make a go at being a profitable player. Switching exclusively to No Limit Full Ring Cash games because i really need to work on patience and tightness.

I purchased Poker Copilot for Mac OS X to track my results. This tool has already paid for itself by showing my a number of leaks in my game.

I will do a whole series on Poker Copilot and how im using it soon.

I also switched to Ultimate Bet from Full Tilt because Full Tilt decided to stop paying me rakeback?!

I will switch back one day but honestly UB is pretty cool.

I will post updates to how im doing regularly as i am playing about 3 hours a day.

I am playing NL25 because i am comfortable with these stakes for now.

Playing a little bit below my bankroll but i will just put more money in if necassary. I am getting decent money from my job this year so i have a good cushion just in case.

Strategy is simple but requires discipline to not play weak hands. Basically playing tight, blind stealing, and waiting for monsters.

Also by playing one table i can take notes on my opponents and that is really helping me make quality descions.

I’m not bleeding chips anywhere close to what i was before either.

All in All things are going very well and will keep you updated.

Ethan Caine

Basically the guy kept raising me and raising me throughout the hand. Small value bets nothing major. I’m guessing he put me on AK. The thing is I had a feeling he had AQ all along.

Got Greedy & Stupid

I stupidly pushed ALL IN on the river after he value betted me and well lost almost an hours worth of work.

Still a good lesson that I need to tighten up my game and really think about what people have.

-Ethan
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine

Fuck am I stupid…like seriously…I must be on crack or something to make a call like this.  I played the guy TO THE RIVER chasing the flush.  Once I didn’t make my flush I went all in?!  Of course he had AA and I am a retard.

Donkey Extraordinare

Fool tried to slow play AA and got raped by 2s.  No clue what Ferrisuko was doing in this hand but oh well…

2s Never Lose

That being said I also had no business being in this hand as I only had a 2 of clubs…AA guy should have laid it down however considering he was PROBABLY beat given the flush board.

Should have seen the strait coming.  I over bet the FLOP with my TWO pair because I wanted to chase away flush people but the guy re-raised and the next thing I knew I was all in.

So DON’T over value Two Pair because they can get you in trouble like it did me….dammit.

-Ethan

I got dealt 10 10 Pre Flop and threw out a 4x BB Raise to get people off.  Button calls with AK.  Flop comes with 37Ace.  I bet half my stack, he re raises,and I stupidly go ALL IN cause I don’t want to get pushed around.

Bad Call But I Won...will try and learn a lesson from this.

Fortunately the turn brought a 10 giving me a set but of course there was only a 8% chance that could have happened so Neoseeker90 made the correct call and I didn’t.

I am writing this post to force myself to play more correctly and pay attention to odds.

For some reason  I got it into my head I could push this short stack around but of course he just went all in.  I didn’t even have a pair….

Gotta remember to always keep my head and only play positive EV hands.

Don't Push Around Short Stacks...

-Ethan

Playing RUSH poker tonight and I learned the lesson that I need to listen to my intuition and not my greed side AGAIN.

I raise PF and the AA guy re-raises me.  Flop comes RAG unless he has a FLUSH and I go ALL IN push.

I had a feeling he had the AA before I hit the button yet I still pushed ALL IN.  I’m blaming greed on that point but still, I need to learn to LET HANDS go because this mistake cost me my ENTIRE stack.

Ask long as one keeps his head all will be well.

-Ethan
Follow Me On Twitter @RealEthanCaine